Nate Silver

Founder, FiveThirtyEight | Bestselling Author, "The Signal and the Noise" and "On the Edge"
Twitter iconFacebook iconInstagram iconYoutube icon
NateSilver is the leading political forecaster whose statistics-driven approach is unparalleled in its accuracy to predict election outcomes. He first gained national attention during the 2008 presidential election when he correctly predicted the results of the primaries and the presidential winner in 49 states. In 2012, he called 50 of 50 states. 

A pioneer in the field of data journalism, Silver publishes his insights and statistical assessments of cultural phenomena on his highly popular Silver Bulletin Substack, boasting nearly a quarter million subscribers. Silver founded the award-winning Five Thirty Eight website and served as its editor-in-chief until 2023.

Silver is the author of two NewYork Times bestsellers. His newest book, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, was named one of the most-anticipated books of 2024 by Financial TimesThe Guardian, and The Sunday Times. Inspired by his experiences as a professional poker player, the book takes us behind the scenes of casinos, venture capital firms, crypto networks, and into the minds of professional risk-takers to help us better understand navigating uncertainty in the 21st century. In a starred review, Kirkus praises it as "An enlightening study of the people who play the game of risk and win." To accompany the book, Silver launched the Risky Business podcast, applying his renowned analytical framework to everything from politics and poker to better decision-making in one’s personal life.
 
His first bestseller, The Signal and The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don't, shows how to make reliable distinctions between both meaningful signals and noisy data, and confident predictions and accurate ones. Forbes deems it “essential reading in the era of Big Data that touches every business, every sports event, and every policymaker.” The Wall Street Journal lauds the book as “accessible” and “painstakingly researched.” 

Silver has written for ESPN, Sports IllustratedSlate, the NewYork Sun, and the New York Times. His work has been featured in such publications as the New York TimesNewsweekHuffington Post, and Vanity Fair. He has been named one of Fast Company‘s 100 Most Creative People in Business, TIME's 100 Most Influential People, and Rolling Stone's 100 Agents of Change.

Topics

The Future of Risk Management: How poker influences decision-making across domains

With the proliferation of online gambling, the principles of poker gameplay have seeped into other domains where analytics and strategy intersect. As a result, decision-making paradigms across industries from sports to business are shifting as players view risk in a different light. In this talk, Nate Silver explains the data and cultural phenomena behind this change, how it manifests in different industries, and what this means for the future of risk management. A professional poker player, renowned political forecaster, and bestselling author of several books including his most recent, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, Nate Silver is uniquely positioned to demystify risk and risk takers for audiences who wish to understand this quickly changing, newly emerging world.
Show more

On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

Studies show that we make approximately 35,000 decisions a day. Luckily, the majority of these are routine and inconsequential. The world will not stop turning if you make a less-than-ideal breakfast choice. But how do we ensure we make the right decision when it really matters? It starts with understanding risk. Professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us a lot about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century. In researching for his newest book On the Edge, Silver embedded himself within the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman and many others, to share insights into a range of issues from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI. In this presentation, Nate Silver shares his analytical framework for assessing risk and making data-driven decisions that can give your business a competitive edge in an increasingly uncertain marketplace. Drawing from his work as both a leading statistician and professional poker player, Silver empowers audiences with strategies to confidently chart a course for success in business and in life.   
Show more

Videos

Democrats more than doubled chance of winning overnight
Nate Silver
Nate Silver talks new podcast "Risky Business"
Nate Silver
Conversations with Tyler | Mercatus Center
Nate Silver

Articles

Newspaper icon
The story of Trump's win was foretold in New York City
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
Here's What My Gut Says About the Election. But Don't Trust Anyone's Gut, Even Mine.
New York Times
Newspaper icon
Notable & Quotable: Nate Silver on Trump's Chances
The Wall Street Journal
Newspaper icon
The Power of Thinking Like a Poker Player
The New Yorker
Newspaper icon
'On the Edge' Review: BettingTerms
The Wall Street Journal
Newspaper icon
I Have Been Studying Poker for Years. Kamala Harris Isn't Bluffing.
New York Times
Newspaper icon
Nate Silver on Kamala Harris's Chances and the Mistake of the 'Indigo Blob'
New York Times
Newspaper icon
Welcome to the River
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
Nate Silver Know Who Will Win
New York Magazine
Newspaper icon
Poker Pros, Crypto Kings, and Tech Titans: Nate Silver's Guide to "The River"
Vanity Fair
Newspaper icon
Go big or go home
Business Insider
Newspaper icon
On the Edge by Nate Silver — the risk-takers who beat the market
Financial Times
Newspaper icon
Nate Silver Want to Teach You How to Be a Better Gambler
Bloomberg
Newspaper icon
Nate Silver Wants to Teach You How to Be a Better Gambler
Bloomberg
Newspaper icon
On the Edge by Nate Silver review — the art of risk-taking
The Guardian
Newspaper icon
Doing Nothing About Biden Is the Riskiest Plan of All
New York Times
Newspaper icon
How much will Trump's conviction harm him? Watch low-information voters.
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
Poker, politics and point guards: ‘Risky Business’ podcast debuts
Poker.org
Newspaper icon
Nate Silver Launches ‘Risky Business’ Podcast With Maria Konnikova From Pushkin & iHeartPodcasts
Deadline
Newspaper icon
Announcing Risky Business, a new podcast with Maria Konnikova
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
Go to a state school
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
How culture trumps economic class as the new political fault line
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
Libertarians Are the Real Liberals
reason
Newspaper icon
Google abandoned "don't be evil" — and Gemini is the result
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
It's time for the White House to put up or shut up
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
What a Split in Consumer Confidence Means for Biden
New York Times
Newspaper icon
Officially announcing On The Edge, my new book
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
Free speech is in trouble
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
It's gonna be a very long and exceptionally tedious road to November 2024
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
Journalists should be skeptical of all sources — including scientists
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
What it's like to run deep in the WSOP Main Event (Part 1)
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
For Nate Silver, ‘Poker is a Part of My Life Now’
World Poker Tour
Newspaper icon
Polling averages shouldn't be political litmus tests
Silver Bulletin
Newspaper icon
What Was Nate Silver's Data Revolution?
New Yorker
Newspaper icon
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight's advice to founders
Fortune

Podcasts

Book Nate Silver for your event
Request Availability
Download Bio
PDF icon
US Politics
Big Data & Data Science
Current Events
Presidential Series
Artificial Intelligence
Geopolitics & Globalization
Twitter iconFacebook iconInstagram iconYoutube icon
By continuing to browse you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts. If you do not wish to allow cookies, please see our cookie policy for instructions. Learn more